Market Notes for 5/11-5/15
Market Notes for 5/11-5/15
Market Notes for 5/11-5/15
SPX closed Friday at a fresh all-time high of 7,398.93, capping a sixth straight winning week (+2.3%) — the longest weekly streak since 2024. NDX outperformed at +4.5% on the week behind a monster AMD reaction.VIX closed at 17.19, holding in the mid-teens for a third straight week. Dow lagged again (+0.2% on the week), the equal-weight/cap-weighted divergence persists, and breadth remains a watch item.
Economic Calendar this week: This is a pure inflation/consumer week.
Monday 5/11 — Quiet open. NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations at 11:00 AM. Senate likely takes up the Warsh Fed Chair confirmation this week — headline risk on timing/margin.
Tuesday 5/12 — CPI (April) at 8:30 AM ET. Headline expected ~0.3% MoM / 3.2% YoY; Core ~0.3% MoM / 2.7% YoY. March printed hot (+0.9% headline, energy-led). The market needs softer energy passthrough and a contained shelter print to confirm the disinflation narrative the Fed has been resisting. NFIB Small Business Optimism at 6:00 AM.
Wednesday 5/13 — PPI (April) at 8:30 AM ET. Final demand expected ~0.2% MoM. Core PPI feeds into the PCE bridge, so the components matter more than headline — specifically portfolio management fees and healthcare services. EIA crude at 10:30 AM.
Thursday 5/14 — Retail Sales (April) at 8:30 AM ET. Headline expected ~0.2%; control group is the read for the Q2 GDP nowcast. Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM. Empire State Mfg (May) at 8:30 AM. Industrial Production / Capacity Util at 9:15 AM. Fed speakers: Williams, Barkin, Kashkari throughout the day.
Friday 5/15 — Housing Starts / Building Permits at 8:30 AM. Import/Export Prices at 8:30 AM. UMich Consumer Sentiment (prelim) at 10:00 AM — 1Y and 5–10Y inflation expectations matter most; the 5–10Y print has been the most-cited indicator in recent FOMC minutes. Monthly opex Friday.
SPX levels
